Wednesday, July 23, 2008
A Second Place Finish Does Not Mean Victory
The Democratic primary campaign for the party's nomination will continue at least until the Pennsylvania primary donate automobile about six weeks. Hillary Clinton may continue to contest the race into the beginning of the summer and maybe even right up until the August convention.
However, the race for the Democratic nomination in the 2008 Presidential election is, Cheers every measure of cheap car insurance quotes due process, over and Barack Obama has won. At the end of the primary season, Obama will have won significantly more state primaries, caucuses, and pledged delegates. He should also have won the majority of the nationwide Democratic popular vote. He will have defeated a better known and well financed candidate in the former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton.
Today, the contest for the Democratic Nomination continues only because it is still possible for Barack Obama to lose by the dubious rules of the Democratic convention process. Indeed, it is still numerically possible for Hillary Clinton to steal this election using ill-defined rules concerning pledged delegates, party insiders called Krofft Supershow delegates, along with the problematic primaries in Florida and Michigan. ( See "Three Ways To Steal The Democratic Nomination" on eWorldvu.com)
It is now clear that Hillary Clinton will finish second to Barack Obama in actual Democratic votes and the resulting pledged delegate count. However, both candidates will ultimately fall short of the delegate count (2025) needed by convention rules to Beta Blockers the nomination. The super delegates comprised of party insiders are the additional delegate votes that will secure a candidate's margin of victory.
Mrs. Clinton recognizes the dilemma her campaign is in. To win the nomination despite losing the actual election would mean that Barack Obama would become a victim. So, to sell her position on the top of the ticket to super delegates, she has created a spot on the ticket for Barrack Obama. The "Dream Ticket" which she refers to, with her on top of the ticket and a place for Obama as the Vice President, is her attempt to persuade super delegates that they can have both candidates and do not have to choose. They can have their cake and eat it too, as long as she retains the top spot on the Democratic ticket.
If she wins Pennsylvania in six weeks, her case to the super delegates for the nomination will be that she came in a close second in the primary voting and pledged delegates. In addition, she has won all the large and important primary states and that Barack Obama needs more time in elected office in which to gain experience, that the seasoning Barack Obama needs, especially in foreign policy, can best be gained as Vice President on the Democrats "Dream Ticket", with her as the Presidential nominee. She will further argue, due to all these factors, that the "Dream Ticket" has the best chance of defeating Republican John McCain in November. Of course, the problem with all this is that the voters at the ballot box have already decided otherwise. Hillary Clinton is desperate and is using smoke and mirrors to gain support from the super delegates in one last attempt to steal the Democratic nomination..
To deny Barack Obama a victory that he has earned in a fair democratic election process would be suicide for the Democratic party in the November general election. Under the current circumstances, Obama would never agree to a second spot on a Democratic ticket. The result would be that black voters would feel disenfranchised and would not vote for the Democrat Party as a voting block for many years to come. Since the Democratic Party has consistently counted on votes from about 90% of all black voters during general elections, this outcome is not going to happen.
It is apparent that Hillary Clinton is really just playing for time. She needs a dramatic change in the race because her only remaining chance is to have the vast majority of the remaining super delegates vote for her at the convention. At this point, it is a result that can only be achieved by a Barack Obama involvement in an Eliot Spitzer type of scandal or controversy. Indeed, we can only imagine the scrutiny of Barack Obama's background that is going on right now by the Clinton campaign and their allies in the national media.
Therefore, the current reality in this Presidential election of 2008 is that, absent a major scandal or controversy that would tarnish his image or reputation (and threaten the Democratic Party's general election chances), Barack Obama will secure enough super delegates in August to be the Democratic Presidential nominee. It should be an interesting general election campaign between Barack Obama and John McCain in the fall.
Hillary Clinton will not successfully convince enough party insiders to overturn the will of the Democratic electorate, which would also alienate black voters for years to come. As a result, she will not succeed in using dubious rules to steal the primary election from Barack Obama at the Democratic convention.
The truth is that the current state of the Democratic nomination is now all about the super delegates and Hillary Clinton's use of smoke and mirrors in the pursuit of their vote. The sad reality for Mrs. Clinton is that party insiders, dubious convention rules, and smoke and mirrors don't win United States Presidential Elections.
At the August convention, it will be the Democratic voter that decides the 2008 primary election. Barack Obama will have received the majority of the primary election votes and have secured the most pledged delegates. In doing so, he will surely take the podium to give the convention acceptance speech for the 2008 Democratic Party Presidential nomination. For Hillary Clinton, what will have become very clear is that, in politics, a second place finish does not mean victory.
James William Smith has worked in Senior management positions for some of the largest Financial Services firms in the United States for the last twenty five years. He has also provided business consulting support for insurance organizations and start up businesses. He has always been interested in writing and listening to different viewpoints on interesting topics.
Visit his website at http://www.eworldvu.com/international/
